Guest Post: Iraq is the Crucial Issue

[Editor's Note: What follows is a contribution from Marvin Sussman, an Elmhurst resident, like me, and a WWII veteran. Marvin is concerned that Democrat's will try to run this fall by simply trying to hang Iraq on Repblicans without offering a realistic alternative solution. He thinks that strategy will fail and I think he may be right. Here Marvin offers an alternative with the hope of inspiring a constructive discussion. He says his efforts to present his ideas to Jill Morgenthaler's campaign have, so far, not been met with a response. We think she might just see them here. Thanks, Marvin, for reading and contributing.] [Update 3/6/2008 - Please read Jill Morgenthaler's response following Marvin's post.]

It is absolutely certain that Iraq will be the determining issue facing Obama and McCain.

To win in November, Obama must be absolutely right on this issue.  It is not enough to hang McCain’s record around his neck.  Obama must present a realistic view of Iraq’s future.  He must show how he would leave Iraq with a semblance of long-term stability.

“If elected, I will do my best to bring complete independence to Kurdistan and to guarantee its security as a sovereign nation!  And I will do my best to separate the Sunnis from the Shi’ites and end their perpetual warfare!  I will ask the UN to hold independence plebiscites for each group.  When everyone has their own nation and their own government, the fighting will stop.  I will get all of our troops out of Iraq!”

That’s the kind of promise that will elect Obama.  But no important Democrat has yet seen complete partition as the only realistic and permanent solution to the Iraq crisis.  No, not Senator Biden’s “weak central government” that controls “only” the army and oil revenue!  Complete partition into totally independent nations!

General Petraeus has done a fair job of reducing civilian casualties by partially separating the Sunnis from the Shi’ites.  That is exactly the direction to take, but Obama must go beyond segregation.  He has to go all the way!  Complete partition of Iraq into independent Kurdistan, Sunnistan, and Shiastan is the long-term solution.

The Democrats will lose the 2008 election with their simplistic call to “Bring the troops home!” because many of the troops will already be home or on the way by Labor Day.  Over half of our troops will remain indefinitely in Iraq as a peace-keeping force but the public won’t know that until the elections are over and McCain is in the White House.

There will be little sectarian fighting after Labor Day because: (1) AQI will be much reduced; (2) the Shi’ites will have control of most of the Baghdad region; (3) the remaining Sunnis living in communities near Shi’ites are well protected behind concrete walls.  But real sectarian reconciliation won’t happen in the next 10 generations.

Americans must understand the truth about Iraq.  The truth about Iraq is that most so-called “Iraqis” have no loyalty to Iraq.  They are loyal - in descending order of importance - to their family, clan, tribe, and sect.  The vast majority of the people want separate and independent national or religious identities as Kurds in Kurdistan, Shi’ites in Shiastan, and Sunnis in Sunnistan.  Multi-cultural Iraq is a misbegotten creation of Winston Churchill, who partitioned the Ottoman Empire after World War I.  He drew lines on a map and named an area “Iraq”, but neither he nor Bush could make an “Iraqi” out of Sunni, a Shi’ite, an Arab, or a Kurd.  It has always been and must still be held together only by sheer force, whether by Saddam Hussein or by George Bush.

Churchill could have created distinct nations to minimize the minority problems.  Instead, in one nation, he armed the oil-poor Sunnis to dominate the oil-rich Shi’ites and Kurds.  The Sunni minority has ever since suppressed the majority, stolen their oil, and kept them in poverty.  The only realistic, permanent solution to the Iraq crisis is the partition of Iraq into three distinct nations.  Obama must rectify Churchill’s blunder. 

Iraq is inherently unstable and cannot survive as a nation.  Given the enmity among the groups and a Shi’ite / Sunni / Kurd population ratio of approximately 4 / 1 / 1, the Shi’ites will win every national election.  For that reason, the Kurds want and deserve total independence.  Each Sunni voter is detested and hounded to death by the five other voters and will gain nothing in an Iraqi election.  Neither the Kurds nor the Shi’tes have any reason to share their oil revenue with the Sunnis.  On the contrary, they believe the Sunnis should compensate them for stolen oil.  Sunni Arabs also want independence.

After deposing Saddam Hussein, Bush armed the Shi’ite majority and the Kurds.  The 2004 election created an essentially Shi’ite government with a Shi’ite army and police force.  Since then, Shi’ite death squads have defeated the Sunni suicide bombers for control of the Baghdad region.  The fiction of an “Iraqi” government that needs help is now only a “cover” for a permanent US armed presence in the Middle East.

The Shi’ites may oppose the partition because it would mean the end of a bonanza provided by American taxpayers.  They have conned us for years with feigned weakness and a need for armaments and training and financial aid while slaughtering Sunnis by the hundreds of thousands.  The Shi’ites have enough arms to defend themselves even after selling much of it on the black market.  If the Shi’ite factions would stop fighting with each other over their oil, they wouldn’t need our money.

Should we worry that Shiastan would co-operate or even unite with Iran?  Such co-operation will occur with or without partition and there is nothing we can do to stop it.  Furthermore, nationality will trump religion: Persians and Arabs are often enemies.  A merger would require one of the two leaders to yield power to the other.  Impossible!

The way to total and complete partition is obvious.  A UN sponsored plebiscite in Kurdistan, (including Kirkuk) would leave only the Baghdad region in contention between Sunnis and Shi’ites.  After years of ethnic and religious cleansing, the Sunni population in this area is much reduced.  Those Sunnis who are willing to move to a Sunni province and are provided with serious financial aid and transportation will jump at the opportunity.  After sufficient separation, local UN sponsored plebiscites could determine boundaries between the three nations.  If the Kurds or Sunnis are insecure, they may invite us to very briefly keep small peace-keeping forces at various borders.

The above is a realistic view of Iraq’s future.  That strategy is the only way that Obama can show how he would leave Iraq with a semblance of long-term stability.